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Operation Thunder Surge 雷霆破浪行动

此剧本模拟讨论了一个基于人民解放军新锐装备的中国版远征前进基地作战情景。

2029, The Russo-Ukrainian War is no longer front-page news, but its shadow still hangs heavy. A brutal five-year attrition war that began in 2022 is currently frozen under the July 2027 London Accord. Russia holds more territory than Crimea and the original Donbas oblasts, yet its strategic reserves are exhausted. Ukraine survives as a fortress state on Western life support. Trump’s second term (2025–2029) and its “America First” policy are slashing European commitments, leaving Germany and France to face Russian hybrid threats alone. NATO cohesion is cracking.

In East Asia the frozen compromise hits harder. Drone footage and million-plus casualty counts fuel a pacifist wave sweeping from Tokyo to Taipei. In 2028 Taiwan’s Bluebird Movement turned inward, radical factions now purge DPP moderates for “secret deals with Beijing.” Street violence exceeds anything seen before. The current DPP government is on the verge of collapse.

Japan moves in the opposite direction. Despite a dovish public, right-wing hardliners dominate the Diet. Under Sanae Takaichi’s JIBA, the JMSDF is adding half an escort flotilla of new warships, led by the 20,000-ton ASEV Akagi. Tokyo, Washington, and Canberra are rearming the Ryukyus and turning Iwo Jima into a major forward base. Japanese hypersonic weapons completed their first test-firings in 2028 and are entering service now—an open declaration of a Japanese A2/AD network.

September 2029. Washington is once again playing "Taiwan Card" and pressing THAAD on Taipei. The spark, however, comes from Tokyo’s overreach. Beijing responds with massive conventional missile barrages against Okinawa, selected sites in mainland Japan, and Guam. Kadena and other bases lie paralyzed. Fierce air and naval battles are raging; the US–Japan coalition is taking heavy losses, including the lightning carrier America.

Australia has just declared it will defend Japan. The ASEV Akagi is struggling to rebuild Okinawa’s air-defense umbrella. Izumo and USS Theodore Roosevelt are racing westward. At the same time, Chinese and Japanese emissaries are holding secret talks in Singapore: Beijing offers to confine all further fighting to the Ryukyu chain if Tokyo eventually stands aside.

Taiwan, still outside the fighting, is experiencing its worst panic since 1996. On day three of the war, a powerful amphibious armada—including the brand-new Type 076 Sichuan—is transiting the Bashi Channel heading north. Every allied intelligence agency believes the target is Taiwan’s east coast.

They are wrong. The Central Military Commission has approved a far bolder plan: while fixing and destroying Seventh Fleet in the east, a surgical strike seizes Yonaguni and stands up a Chinese expeditionary advanced base (Sino-EOBS). One unsinkable node will fracture the First Island Chain and push hostile forces back into the sensor-starved deep Pacific.

The hot monsoon winds are breaking the waves—and the chain.

This scenario shows the concept of EOBS and massive air sea battle in Chinese aspect, hope you enjoy and I‘m glad to see your feedback!