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Operation Eagle Guardian

This scenario reflects a conflict over control of the Baltic States between NATO, its regional partners, and the Russian Federation. It is a single-side scenario taking place over the course of almost one week throughout Europe. Tactically, this scenario pits Moscow's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy and “home field advantage” against the more-capable - but smaller and readiness-impaired - forces of NATO and its partners.

Your goal, as NATO, is to prevent a Russian "fait accompli" invasion of the Baltic States, wherein Russian forces defeat NATO ground forces and sufficiently degrade NATO's ability to liberate its easternmost members. Your objective is to overcome Russian opposition to deploy NATO reinforcements to the Baltic States, and defeat Russian military assets essential to Moscow's battle plan, within the allotted timeframe and without unnecessary escalation.

This scenario also attempts to model how conventional conflict can escalate into nuclear conflicts, often in unpredictable ways. Nuclear weapons may be employed under certain circumstances, but at extreme risk. Strategic nuclear exchange will result in scenario failure.

Players should utilize the beginning of the scenario to deploy air and naval forces to support your battle plan. Additionally, players should take the opportunity to assign support helicopters to appropriate naval vessels early in the scenario. Please also ensure that Special Messages are active, and carefully review the Side Briefing and any Special Messages.

CREDITS: The assumptions in this scenario are an adapted version of those underpinning the RAND Corporation report “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics” by David Shlapak and Michael Johnson. Additional inspiration was drawn from "Fire and Ice: A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank" by Dr. Rowan Allport and the Human Security Centre.

The scenario was developed over the course of 2017, 2018 and 2019, and was made possible through the publicly-shared assets of other CMANO community members, countless national security experts, reporters, and hobbyists who have studied NATO, European, and Russian forces, and patient support from community members in the Tech Support form. I am also very grateful for the beta-testing support of many in the CMANO forums, especially templar42, Gunner98, and many more. I hope that you will enjoy this scenario.

COMMENTS: This version (v3) of the scenario is believed free of critical faults. Bug reports, positive and negative feedback, and technical critiques are very, very welcome via Steam's Workshop functions, the CMANO forums, or Twitter @GeoffreyPotter.

Photo Credit: NATO enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) Battle Group Latvia, 28JAN19 via Facebook