What’s going on in Venezuela?

Documental about Venezuela situation: http://youtu.be/EFS6cP9auDc
It’s difficult to briefly explain the situation in Venezuela right now. The difficulty lies in the fact that it is complicated, like most things. No matter how various political protagonists, human rights groups and news media would like to paint things as simple, black and white, they are not. To understand one has to dig down, deep.

Why are Venezuelans taking to the streets?
Venezuela is faced by economic, social, and political challenges: Inflation is at 56 percent, the currency is rapidly devaluing, shortages of staples like toilet paper and sugar are plaguing the nation, and the murder rate is one of the worst in the world. What started out as roughly two weeks of small, student-led protests against the Maduro administration has turned into opposition-organized marches that involve stone-throwing and taunting met by tear gas and water cannons.

What’s at stake for the Venezuelan government?
This is the first popular, non-electoral challenge to Maduro’s rule. The attention Venezuela has received over the past week has put government policies in the national and international spotlight less than a year after former President Chávez’s death was announced.

Maduro was elected president by a razor thin margin, and the lack of mandate was a challenge from the start. The visible, vocal demonstrations by opposition supporters calling on the government to make changes in Venezuela risk pealing away Maduro supporters, says Sabatini. There are fears that the government itself could become fragmented.

“Maduro’s credibility has always hung by a thread,” Sabatini says. If Maduro doesn’t appear to be in control, it could lead to infighting within Chavismo.

The administration has accused the opposition of plotting a coup, operating a fascist movement, and over the weekend announced the expulsion of three US Embassy employees for their alleged involvement with opposition organizing against the government. This is the third time Maduro has kicked out US officials, a common tactic of the Chávez administration.

The government is appealing to its more militant base, says Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “Maduro’s under a lot of pressure,” from his supporters, Mr. Weisbrot says.

In the short run, the rhetoric the government uses to characterize the opposition may be deflecting attention away from many of the protester complaints. However, if larger-scale violence breaks out, or if it is traced back to the government, these tactics could backfire.
What’s next?

The government has strong political organization and mobilization capabilities, but it inherited and continues to implement damaging economic policies. Short of making any drastic economic changes, many analysts fear further violence in Venezuela.