Dice Kingdoms

Dice Kingdoms

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Dice reroll : a statistical analysis
由 Swapiti 制作
You reroll your dice and swear at the game because you got 0 skull ? This guide is for you, learn how to reroll and have the best chance to win the game. "A man that know the probability is not blind anymore".
   
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Chapter One: Understanding Rerolling
Why reroll your dice?

Rerolling dice in Dice Kingdoms can be a crucial strategic decision. There are two main reasons to reroll:
  • You didn't roll the resources you desired.
  • You are on the left part of the event ladder and want to avoid its consequences.

Rerolling is free, but each reroll increases the risk of rolling an additional skull.
But first which dice to reroll?

Identifying Dice to Reroll

Now that you know how many dice to reroll, let's discuss which ones to choose. At Dice Kingdoms School, we advise rerolling dice that do not provide their intended resources. For example:
  • Reroll a green die that didn't give you an army.
  • Reroll a white die that didn't give you a book.
  • If you need food, reroll every yellow die that didn’t show the four-food face.

Basic skull probability

When you roll a die, there's a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a skull. This is true for every die except the sorcerer die, which still has a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a face that make you switch side on the event ladder.

Complexe skull probability
  • For one die, the probability of rolling a skull is approximately 16.7%.
  • For two dice, the probability of rolling exactly one skull is about 27.8%.
  • For three dice, the probability of rolling exactly one skull is about 34.7%
  • For four dice, the probability of rolling exactly one skull is about 38.6%
  • For five dice, the probability of rolling exactly one skull is about 40.2%
  • For six dice, the probability of rolling exactly one skull is about 40.2%

The probability of getting exactly one skull increase at every dice you add. At five dice and six dice it's maximized. Rerolling 5 dice is less risky as you have a higher chance of not rolling a skull and avoiding moving up the event ladder.

Strategy for different sides of the event ladder

Left side of the event ladder

At Dice Kingdoms School, we recommend rerolling exactly 5 dice if you are on the left side of the event ladder. That's where you'll have the best odds and take the least risk. Unless you consider that the risk of moving up the ladder is not that risky, then re-roll more than 5 dice to lower the chance to stay at 0 skull.

Right side of the event ladder

If you're on the right side, you have to re-roll the dice to collect resources, but you want to stay on that side. The fewer dice you re-roll, the greater your chances of staying on the right side. Refer to the probability chart below to understand your chances according to the number of dice you re-roll.


Your die rolls should be weighted according to the risk/reward formula below.
Chapter Two: Risk Management Practices
Risk Management Formula

Risk management in Dice Kingdoms involves weighing the rewards against the risks.

You can now use this formula to choose if the risk-reward is worth it.

Applying the Formula

Let's say you're on the right side and want to reroll one die for gold, a gold is worth a lot of reward for you because it's turn 2 and it will heavly impact your build order. For you this gold reward value 100 out of 100. The risk of having a batiment burned in the process of getting a skull is 50, because it have a midle impact on your game. Based on that you can rewrite the formula as follow :


Since the value is positive, the risk-reward is acceptable. However, if the value of gold for your next turn is only 50, because it's less necessary in your build order, then the formula become:


Here, the risk is not worth it. Always consider this calculation when deciding to reroll or not one dice.

Unlocking the Third Reroll


Unlocking the third reroll greatly improves your chances of a successful roll. However, even with three rerolls, there's still a 20% chance of not switching sides while rolling 5 dice. In a 15-turn game, expect around 3 bad events if you understand how to reroll effectively.
Chapter Three: Conclusion
Pay attention to the events, and roll 5 dice to make sure you change sides, and only one if you're on the right side of the event scale. And don't forget to buy the third dice roll!

By mastering rerolling strategies and risk management, you can optimize your resources and outperform your opponents in Dice Kingdoms. For more tips and strategies, explore our other guides and videos. Happy rolling!

https://youtu.be/EpLb31vsjas