TCG Card Shop Simulator

TCG Card Shop Simulator

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Card Rarity Probabilities (Update 0.61.5)
由 LoddZee 制作
This guide goes over the probability checks for each rarity of cards based on what I've found in the code.
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This Guide
So, you wanna know how rare that really cool and expensive card you just pulled actually is? Or are you here to find out what the rarest card is?

Either way, this guide goes over the probabilities for each card rarity and the steps the game takes to generate the cards!

(Quick Note: when I say "rarity" I mean the border type. In the code, "rarity" refers to what card pack the card came from, eg Common, Rare, Epic, Legendary. Rarity is more fun to say than "border type" in my opinion.)
Probabilty of Each Card Rarity
Here are the exact probabilities that the code gives for each rarity.

Full Art: 1/400 (0.25%)
EX: 1/100 (1%)
Gold: 1/25 (4%)
Silver: 1/12.5 (8%)
First Edition: 1/5 (20%)

Any Foil: 1/20 (5%)

(For each rarity, getting a foil is a 1/20 on top of it. For example, a Full Art Foil is a 1/400 to get a
Full Art and then a 1/20 for that Full Art to be a Foil, giving a 1/8,000 or 0.0125% chance)
Here's How It Works
The moment you open a pack, the game will randomly generate 7 cards. Each card goes through the following process:
1) Generate a random number between 0 and 10,000.
2) Check if the number is lower than the set probability value for that rarity multiplied by 100. (There is a set value for each rarity, basically the chance out of 100)
3) Repeat once for each rarity.

The first check is always to see if the card will be Foil (1/20).
From there, it'll check for the rarity. It'll check down from Full Art to First Edition. If it succeeds any, it will skip all other checks. If none succeed, it'll default to a Base Card.

The type of card pack does not affect the chances of each rarity. You get the same probability for Common Packs as you do Legendary Packs as you do any Destiny Packs (with the exception of Ghost Packs).

Another thing, there's no sign of any difference between Individual Card Packs and Box Card Packs (Cards from a Box Pack). All packs go through the same code to generate the 7 random cards and rarities.
The Calculated Distribution
If you have any study in probability and statistics, you might notice that with the method of checking each card rarity as stated above, it does depend on the previous result. If the code decided your card is a gold card, it will never try for a silver. So therefore, to get the more common card rarities, it will need to fail each other check before hand.

So after crunching the numbers, the following table shows roughly how many different card rarities you'll get on average out of 10,000 cards and their respective percentage (both rounded to 2 decimal places) and sorted from rarest to most common:

Card Rarity
Number of Cards out of 10k
% Per Card
Full Art Foil
1.25
0.01%
EX Foil
4.99
0.05%
Gold Foil
19.75
0.20%
Full Art
23.75
0.24%
Silver Foil
37.92
0.38%
First Edition Foil
87.22
0.87%
EX
94.76
0.95%
Base Foil
348.87
3.48%
Gold
375.26
3.75%
Silver
720.50
7.21%
First Edition
1,657.14
16.57%
Base
6,628.59
66.29%

Note: this does not take into account ghosts and ghost foils as they are dependent on packs and not individual cards. They wouldn't change the values much anyways.
Ghost Packs and Ghost Cards
For those who don't know, there's a rare set of cards called Ghost Cards.

Each pack that you open has a random chance of being a Ghost Pack.

If you're opening a Tetramon pack, it's a 1/1,000 chance (0.1%) for it to be a Ghost Pack.
If you're opening a Destiny pack, it's a 1/500 chance (0.2%) for it to be a Ghost Pack.

If the check succeeds, the last card in a Ghost Pack will be a guaranteed Ghost Card.

There's a 50/50 for it to have a White or Black background and still a 1/20 for it to be a foil.
(A total of 1/20,000 (0.005%) chance for a Foil Ghost Card from a Tetramon Pack or a 1/10,000 (0.01%) from a Destiny Pack).

Note: all Ghost Cards are Legendary Full Art cards.
XP From Opening Cards
Did you know that the xp you gain from opening packs all depends on what rarity of cards you get? Well, here's the xp you get per rarity of cards:

Base 1 Exp First Edition 2 Exp Silver 6 Exp Gold 8 Exp Base Foil 8 Exp EX 15 Exp First Edition Foil 16 Exp Full Art 18 Exp Ghost 18 Exp Silver Foil 48 Exp Gold Foil 64 Exp EX Foil 120 Exp Full Art Foil 144 Exp Ghost Foil 144 Exp

(Credit to user EndOfFile for compiling this list!
Seeing How Many Packs You've Opened
As of now, there's no easy way to see how many card packs you've opened.
The best way I've found is by using a site called saveeditonline[www.saveeditonline.com].

1. Open saveeditonline[www.saveeditonline.com].
2. Locate your save file: C:\Users\%userprofile%\AppData\LocalLow\OPNeonGames\Card Shop Simulator\savedGames_Release1.gd. (The 1 is the save file, you'll also have 2 or 3 if you've saved into them)
3. Drag and drop or open in browser the save file. The website may say you can't open them but you definitely can.
4. Search for: m_GameReportDataCollectPermanent > cardPackOpened
5. The number next to it is how many packs you've opened!

I'm hoping OPNeon will add in a stats page in the future.
Customer Trading Cards
As of update 0.50, Customers can now sell or trade you cards! What type of card they sell or trade is dependent on your store level, meaning you can't get destiny cards without having unlocked destiny packs and ghost cards will show up more frequently when you are a higher level. That being said, here's the values:

Lvl
Unlocked Pack
Destiny %
Ghost %
Foil Ghost %
Graded %
0
Common
0%
0.4%
0%
0%
5
Rare
0%
0.8%
0%
2%
12
Epic
0%
1.2%
0%
4%
20
Legendary
0%
1.6%
0.016%
6%
25
Destiny Common
15%
2%
0.04%
8%
30
Destiny Rare
25%
2.4%
0.072%
10%
40
Destiny Epic
35%
2.8%
0.112%
12%
50
Destiny Legendary
50%
3.6%
0.18%
15%

The card that is chosen by the customer has an even chance to be any border including foil. So a 1/12 for a base all the way up to a 1/12 for a full art foil. Only exception are ghost cards which I have listed above the rarity for a foiled ghost per pack unlocked.The grade for any graded cards are uniformly random from grade 1-10 (all evenly likely).
Card Grading
Since v0.60, we've had the ability to grade cards! (WOOOOOOOOO)

Let's go over the chances of getting that sweet sweet grade 10 card!
Grading Chances
On the very day you receive your cards back from the grader, the game will determine each of the cards' grades separately. It's important to note that each service does not affect the grading. You won't get better grades using the faster service.

The way the grades are determined is similar to how the Card Rarity works, in that it'll go from best to worst and keeping the best result. The chances are as follows:
Good Grade: 96% 10: 40% 9: 50% 8: 50% 7: 50% 6: 50% 5: Left over Bad Grade: 4% 5: 40% 4: 50% 3: 50% 2: 50% 1: Left over
Just to break this down, it'll first check if the grade will be good or bad (96% chance to be good). It'll then check a 40% chance for a grade 10, then a 50% chance for grade 9, and so on. This does mean that the grades are a dependent probability, so here are the real numbers that you should expect to get for every card you sent to be graded:
Grade
Chance %[/th[/tr]
10
38.4%
9
28.8%
8
14.4%
7
7.2%
6
3.6%
5
5.2%
4
1.2%
3
0.6%
2
0.3%
1
0.3%
[/table]
Regrading Cards
Not many people actually know this but you can in fact sent your graded cards back to get regraded! It is pretty risky though as you only have a 30% chance for the card to increase by a single grade. Otherwise, the card will decrease a grade. Are you sure you wanna try to make those grade 9's into some grade 10's? I wish you the best of luck attempting!
Want To Listen Rather Than Read?
If you'd prefer listening to the explanation rather than reading it in plain text, feel free to watch this video by Keldor who basically goes over this guide very simply! https://youtu.be/O6ExZH2DS7E?si=yXRjEHiPI3mf-5RF
And this video here is myself going over the new 0.50 update and it's mechanics! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HRwQPg3fUc
Disclaimer
This info is subject to change by the Developer.
If you see a mistake, let me know. This is from what I've concluded from looking at the code.
I will not be revealing how I looked into the code.

I hope this guide helps you understand what is going on behind the scenes a bit more!

Big shoutout to Keldor for quoting this guide to others whenever they ask about the probabilities!
And to everyone who has given me awards! You are all so very kind and I hope each and every one of you get many Ghost Foils!
125 条留言
Warmachine15550 8 月 28 日 下午 12:45 
Thanks, after they added graded cards a lot of my more expensive cards I’ve been grading and they haven’t been selling due to being more than 10k+ guess they some day will sell, almost level 30 now so hopefully within 10 more levels they have a small chance… I’ll read on your other guide so see when they have a better chance.
LoddZee  [作者] 8 月 27 日 上午 5:05 
Warmachine15550, yes actually. My other guide, Everything Customers goes over how much Customers can spend. If you're around level 20 with a 12k card, it might be that customers simply don't have the money to buy it.
Warmachine15550 8 月 26 日 下午 12:41 
Is there a guide for when customers will buy more expensive cards? Around level 20 and have a card worth 12k that’s been on sale for around 7 days and still no ones bought it… also reading the odds for ghosts surprised my first ghost was a foil
LoddZee  [作者] 7 月 1 日 上午 12:47 
Pants, you can get both white or black in either sets.
Pants 6 月 30 日 上午 11:43 
Aren't the white ones in certain packs and the black ones in others, for the ghost? I would swear I was only getting one type in the first 4 pack, and the other in the other 4?
Metacour 6 月 29 日 下午 9:49 
So you're saying my Ghost Full Art Foil card was lucky as heck before opening 100 packs..... Nice!
cachesystem 6 月 17 日 下午 8:50 
I found the odds of me NOT getting a Ghost Foil after opening about 50,000 Destiny Cards, 99.95%. If I went through 1,000,000 cards I would have a 99.005% of not getting a ghost foil card. The only way to get a ghost foil is through RNG? How long would that take?
Also, if anyone goes through 10,000,000 cards then the odds of getting a Ghost Foil is less than 10% for Destiny Packs. Good luck. What does that mean? It means if the average/cheapest Destiny Pack is $4.94 (316.16 for 64) then you would have to make around $8,000,000 in total profit. All of that grinding for a 10% chance of getting the achievement. Thanks, but I doubt I am that lucky. I guess I will finish it up and shut it off.
花遇和风 6 月 5 日 上午 5:32 
说中文,English听不懂滴,死啦死啦滴
Morfie 3 月 28 日 下午 5:03 
Can epic/legendary booster packs contain basic cards or card value is strictly limited to the value of its respective booster pack?
LoddZee  [作者] 2 月 2 日 上午 12:47 
jamesblackman2022 no, legendary packs do not have a higher chance of being a Ghost Pack. Only difference are the Destiny packs but all rarities in their set have the same probability (those being base set common to legendary are 1 in 1000 and destiny set are a 1 in 500)