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tl;dr kingdom and coinmaker in april 402 a bit later if unlucky
GENERAL
Start with one or two wood collectors. They should not be annoyed by active proffesion or crafting tree. Every other clan should be Guide regardless of their preference (maybe with one exception for single hunter or gatherer for food). You should have something link 2 wood collectors, 4-5 guides, 1 wood bundler, 1 food collector. Mood does not affect multiply proffessions such as Guide or Wood Bundler. When you research Wood Bundlers create one as soon as you have 10 tools (you can probably live with just another guide). Fortify once to make sure you have enough forest in supply range for winter. Move settlement before winter if not enough forests near starting location. You need to produce enough timber to be able to buy caravan upgrades and some other important resources. In 401 designate coal maker and coinmaker (coinmaker should be someone with bunus resource production, it can be for example one of wood collectors created at the beginning). Train them in metalworking using parchments (coal maker to level 4-5, coinmaker to 7-9 to train proffesions faster). Somewhere in middle 401 when you feel you will be able to buy 5 steel tools when they appear (200 gold) switch all guides for lorekeepers. It will crush your timber production but will skyrocket your knowledge production. With 5 lorekeepers you will be able to reaserch coinmaker in 12 turns. Train coal maker in advance and start producing coal from timber. Eventually you will research coinmakers, if this happened before you get a chance to buy steel tools wait and decide what you want to do next. Train coinmaker when possible. Profit. This strategy needs only timber to work which is most common resource. Remember to increase clan limit size and declare kingdom as soon as you can (5 cloth clan size and 25 parchment for kingdom). By middle 402 you have: kingdom producing fame, ~150 coins per turn ability to train second coinmaker if steel tools available from ext caravans, freedom as you can buy many things from caravan (fine cloths and armor for ennobling, steel armors and weapons for legions, sometimes horses to train or warhorses for future knights). You don't have to produce food, tools, weapons, alcohol, oil, parchment, cloth as all those things you can from caravan every few turns. To make things faster you can train clans in particular jobs. You need 1 upgraded wood collector, 2 coal makers, 2 coinmakers to produce enough coins to buy almost everything from caravans every time.
Sometimes you can have bad luck with caravan selling timber so you will sell for 1.5 not for 2. Just sell enough to buy what you need.
CARAVAN
Won't write here what to buy when as I don't remember details but:
upgrade each time!
sell timber each time
20 tools needed
30-40 parchment (25 for kingdom, rest for training)
5 cloth
5 weapons
5 stone blocks (coal maker)
5 steel tools (coinmaker)
few food if missing food collector
RESEARCH
Discovery -> Guides -> Wood Bundlers -> Woold Collectors Upgrade #1 -> Lorekeepers -> Minning -> anything from next row metalworking -> Coal Makers -> anything from next row -> Coinmakers